Ethnic Divisions and Regional Security Risks in Northwestern Iran

The IPEK Center was represented at a webinar hosted by the Topchubashov Center titled "Ethnic Fault Lines and the Future of Northwestern Iran: Implications and Regional Security Risks." IPEK Center's Deputy Director, Turkan Bozkurt, attended as a panelist, contributing expertise on how Iran's deepening internal volatility is reigniting longstanding questions about minority rights and regional stability. Her remarks focused specifically on the northwest of the country (West-Azerbaijan province), where millions of Azerbaijanis and a significant Kurdish population find themselves at a precarious intersection of domestic political pressures and cross-border security dynamics.

A central theme of Bozkurt's remarks was the Iranian regime's deliberate strategy of playing minority communities against one another. By fostering division and mutual suspicion among these groups, the regime has historically undermined the possibility of coordinated opposition. This divide-and-rule approach has proven effective in neutralizing what might otherwise become a unified front capable of challenging the current government.

Bozkurt also addressed recent Iranian regime attacks in Nakhchivan, Qatar, and the UAE, offering two competing interpretations of these incidents. The first views them as separate, retaliatory acts motivated by a desire to avenge the deaths of the Supreme Leader and senior officials. The second and arguably more consequential reading, treats them as a coordinated strategy aimed at drawing multiple countries into the conflict simultaneously, thereby diluting the decision-making capacity of the United States and Israel while forcing a broader international coalition of voices into the equation.

The IPEK Center extends its sincere gratitude to the Topchubashov Center for organizing this timely and important discussion, and to Rusif Huseynov for his thoughtful moderation of such a sensitive and complex topic.